This post is part of AppLovin Nonconsensual Installs. See important disclosures.
It is extraordinarily rare for a company of AppLovin’s size to be caught placing software on users’ devices without their consent. The closest parallel is the 2005 revelation of Sony installing DRM software onto users’ computers without notice, without a EULA, and even when users pressed Cancel. That misconduct triggered enforcement by multiple state attorneys general, private lawsuits, seven-figure settlements, recall of affected CDs, and lasting reputational damage for Sony.
A similar trajectory is plausible for AppLovin. If others come to share my view that AppLovin installed apps without user permission, the company will be a pariah in online advertising. Trust in AppLovin’s auctions, privacy practices, and overall integrity would collapse. Some advertisers currently pay AppLovin both to sell them ad placements and to measure the effectiveness of those ads—which would suddenly seem ill-advised. Allegations in investors’ spring 2025 critiques—previously dismissed as speculation—would become more credible. If critics were right about AppLovin’s install practices, allegations about misbehavior in ad targeting, bid handling, and auction integrity are plausible too.
Google may also react strongly. AppLovin’s tactics circumvent Android security and Play Store protections—similar to other abuses Google previously punished (e.g. its 2018 removal of Cheetah Mobile apps). Google could respond by disabling or removing apps that connect to AppHub, by disabling or removing apps that were installed by AppHub, or by alerting users. Imagine a pop-up: “Your carrier preloaded your device with an install helper that lets third parties install apps without your consent. Google has detected 7 such apps on your device. Would you like to disable the helper and remove those apps?” The impact on AppLovin would be severe. In fact user complaints specifically ask Google to take action: “I believe this is illegal and am going to report it to Google as well.” (Rachel H), “This is nefarious and should be deplatformed by Google” (Colleen Ember), “Google needs to know about this” (Johnson David), “This should be banned from the Google Play store!” (Philip Mecham). With AppLovin intruding onto users’ devices—not “just” draining advertisers’ budgets—there is a strong case for Google to act.
Reading a draft of this article, some people asked about the revenue and profit implications. Rough calculations say the numbers are material:
- Android holds >70% global market share, but high-value users skew toward iPhone. Suppose Android accounts for ~40% of value-weighted usage.
- Of Android devices, AppLovin’s manufacturer and carrier deals may cover ~40%, giving ~16% of devices where installs could occur without consent.
- AppLovin claims an audience >1 billion devices. If AppLovin placed just two unwanted apps on each device each year, that would be ~300 million installs per year.
- At $1 per install (a fraction of AppLovin’s estimated average), that’s $300 million of revenue annually. With no payment to carriers, manufactures, or source apps, this revenue drops straight to the bottom line, yielding about 20% of AppLovin’s 2024 net profit.
The true impact could be larger. Legal fees, settlements, and regulatory penalties will weigh on earnings. Distrust among advertisers and partners could impede future business. Device manufacturers and carriers may have been prepared to look the other way, but are unlikely to let AppLovin continue once these problems come to the fore. And if Google disables AppHub or warns users, AppLovin risks losing not just future revenue but also its installed base.
Trust, once broken, can disappear overnight.