Pivots and Incentives at LevelUp (teaching materials) with Karen Webster

Edelman, Benjamin, and Karen Webster. “Pivots and Incentives at LevelUp.” Harvard Business School Case 915-001, August 2014. (Revised March 2015.) (educator access at HBP. request courtesy copy.)

LevelUp’s mobile payments service lets users scan a smartphone barcode rather than swipe a credit card. Will consumers embrace the service? Will merchants? LevelUp considers adjustments to make the service attractive to both consumers and merchants, while trying to accelerate deployment at reasonable cost.

Teaching Materials:

Pivots and Incentives at LevelUp – Teaching Note (HBP 915015)

Optimization and Expansion at OpenTable (teaching materials) with Karen Webster

Edelman, Benjamin, and Karen Webster. “Optimization and Expansion at OpenTable.” Harvard Business School Case 915-003, August 2014. (Revised March 2015.) (educator access at HBP. request courtesy copy.)

OpenTable considers adjustments to increase its benefits to merchants, including a novel payments service that lets customers skip the multi-step process of using a credit card.

Supplement:

Optimization and Expansion at OpenTable – PowerPoint Supplement (HBP 910010)

Teaching Materials:

Optimization and Expansion at OpenTable – Teaching Note (HBP 915013)

Convergence of Position Auctions under Myopic Best-Response Dynamics

Cary, Matthew, Aparna Das, Benjamin Edelman, Ioannis Giotis, Kurtis Heimerl, Anna Karlin, Scott Duke Kominers, Claire Mathieu, and Michael Schwarz. “Convergence of Position Auctions under Myopic Best-Response Dynamics.” ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation 2, no. 3 (July 2014): 1-20.

We study the dynamics of multi-round position auctions, considering both the case of exogenous click-through rates and the case in which click-through rates are determined by an endogenous consumer search process. In both contexts, we demonstrate that the dynamic auctions converge to their associated static, envy-free equilibria. Furthermore, convergence is efficient, and the entry of low-quality advertisers does not slow convergence. Because our approach predominantly relies on assumptions common in the sponsored search literature, our results suggest that dynamic position auctions converge more generally.

Distribution at American Airlines (teaching materials)

Edelman, Benjamin. “Distribution at American Airlines (A).” Harvard Business School Case 909-035, January 2009. (Revised June 2009.) (educator access at HBP. request a courtesy copy.)

American Airlines sought to reduce the fees it pays to global distribution services (GDSs)–such as SABRE–to reach travel agents. But GDSs held significant tactical advantages. For example, GDSs had signed long-term exclusive contracts with the corporate customers who were American’s best customers. Furthermore, travel agents tended to favor whichever GDS offered the highest commissions–impeding price competition among GDSs. Against this backdrop, American considered how best to cut its GDS costs.

Supplements:

Distribution at American Airlines (B) – Supplement (HBP 909036)

Distribution at American Airlines (C) – Supplement (HBP 913034)

Distribution at American Airlines (D) – Supplement (HBP 913035)

Teaching Materials:

Distribution at American Airlines (A-D) – Teaching Note (HBP 909059)

Distribution at American Airlines – Slide Supplement (HBP 914039)

Objections to Tentative Decision and Order to Show Cause (IATA 787)

Edelman, Benjamin. “Objections to Tentative Decision and Order to Show Cause (IATA 787).” June 2014. (Before the Department of Transportation.)

I critique Order 2014-5-7 (Docket No. DOT-OST-2013-0048-0415) to the extent that the DOT permits, or purports to permit, airlines to sell tickets other than in accordance with published tariffs. I argue that tariffs provide important benefits to passengers and should be continued notwithstanding the proposed IATA Resolution 787.

Pitfalls and Fraud in Online Advertising Metrics: What Makes Advertisers Vulnerable to Cheaters, and How They Can Protect Themselves

Edelman, Benjamin. “Pitfalls and Fraud in Online Advertising Metrics: What Makes Advertisers Vulnerable to Cheaters, and How They Can Protect Themselves.” Journal of Advertising Research 54, no. 2 (June 2014): 127-132.

How does online advertising become less effective than advertisers expect and less effective than measurements indicate? The current research explores problems that result, in part, from malfeasance by outside perpetrators who overstate their efforts to increase their measured performance. In parallel, similar vulnerabilities result from mistaken analysis of cause and effect–errors that have become more fundamental as advertisers target their advertisements with greater precision. In the paper that follows, the author attempts to identify the circumstances that make advertisers most vulnerable, notes adjusted contract structures that offer some protections, and explores the origins of the problems in participants’ incentives and in legal rules.

Mastering the Intermediaries: Strategies for Dealing with the Likes of Google, Amazon, and Kayak

Edelman, Benjamin. “Mastering the Intermediaries: Strategies for Dealing with the Likes of Google, Amazon, and Kayak.” Harvard Business Review 92, no. 6 (June 2014): 86-92.

Many companies depend on powerful platforms which distinctively influence buyers’ purchasing. (Consider, Google, Amazon, and myriad others in their respective spheres.) I consider implications of these platforms’ market power, then suggest strategies to help companies recapture value or at least protect themselves from abuse.

Aspira Networks Charging Merchants for Traffic That’s Otherwise Free

Affiliate marketing is supposed to be low-risk for merchants: in theory, merchants only pay affiliates when a user makes a purchase. Specifically, an affiliate should earn a commission only if 1) the user browses the affiliate’s site, 2) the user clicks the affiliate’s specially-coded link to the merchant, and 3) the user makes a purchase from the merchant. But rogue affiliates find ways to bypass these requirements — be it cookie-stuffing, adware popups, typosquatting, or network-based traffic interception. In this piece, I show Delaware-based Aspira Networks approach: configuring its partners’ networks so that if a user makes a purchase from a targeted merchant’s site, the merchant has to pay Aspira an affiliate commission — even though Aspira did nothing to cause or encourage the user’s purchase.

The method is straightforward. Aspira partners with network operators to monitor and reroute users’ browsing. If a user requests a targeted merchant, Aspira intercedes — redirecting the user to an Aspiralabs.com “finder” page, through an affiliate click link, then back to the merchant. The affiliate redirect causes merchants to conclude, mistakenly, that Aspira caused users’ subsequent purchases.

See examples of Aspira’s redirects in action, targeting the following merchants:
   GoDaddy – video, packet log
   Home Depot – video, packet log
   Travelocity – video, packet log

In testing, I found that Aspira targets roughly a quarter of large mainstream US affiliate merchants. I found Aspira systematically using CJ publisher account 3965551. In testing, I did not find Aspira currently targeting merchants using LinkShare, though an early Aspira investor pitch (dated August 2009 in metadata) indicates that Aspira has worked with LinkShare as well as Google Affiliate Network.

Merchants have no reason to pay for Aspira’s traffic. Though affiliate network reports may attribute sales to Aspira, Aspira does not actuallycause additional or incremental purchases. Rather, these are purchases that merchants would have received anyway. Aspira tells prospective merchants that they will “sell more products” by working with Aspira, but I see no evidence to support that claim. Quite the contrary, in fact; in my testing, Aspira did not genuinely promote any merchants. Aspira claimed commission only after a user had already reached a merchant’s site.

Notably, Aspira’s networks violate longstanding and broadly-applicable network policies. For example, the Commission Junction Publisher Service Agreement indicates that commission is only due for “clicks through links” (provision 3.a). Aspira’s automatic redirects entail no genuine user “click” on any link; there’s an automatic redirect but not an actual click. Other CJ rules disallow “transactions … not in good faith” including all manner of automatic and nonincremental leads (provision 1.d.ii). Here too, Aspira falls short.

In August 2011, Zhang et al. uncovered Paxfire similarly redirecting users through affiliate links. Under litigation pressure and media scrutiny, Paxfire found itself banned from Commission Junction, LinkShare, and Google Affiliate Network. I suggest the same resolution for Aspira.

Aspira’s site focuses on public installations (coffee-shops and the like) where, in principle, one might imagine that network access was made available by payments from Aspira. But I found Aspira redirecting traffic from an ordinary office served by Indiana ISP Smithville Communications. So far as I know, Smithville never notified its customers that it would be monitoring their communications, redirecting them through affiliate links, or sharing their browsing activity with Aspira. (Smithville’s privacy policy makes no mention of Aspira or sending users’ browsing to third parties.) Nor did Smithville offer customers a discount for allowing Smithville and Aspira to monitor and redirect their browsing. Other users report (and criticize) similar redirects when using standard residential and commercial ISPs Access Media 3, Arvig, and OnShore Networks.

Aspira’s site gives little detail about its revenue from redirecting users through affiliate links. Partner Cash4trafik says “typical operators have realized historically …. about $1.00 – $10.00 per subscriber per year.” Notice that revenue must be shared among affiliate networks, Aspira, Cash4traffik, and ISPs — so if an ISP gets $5, the others might take another $15 along the way. Indeed, early Aspira financial projections — posted to the web and readily found by web search — indicate that Aspira planned to retain a 40% to 67% share of affiliate commissions.

Meanwhile, Aspira’s financial projections show a particularly brazen attempt to claim payments despite minimal effort. As of 2010, Aspira projected 2013 revenue climbing to $63 million with expense reportedly to stay below $7 million. Business plans are often overly optimistic, but an 89% profit margin is difficult to reconcile with genuine efforts to find incremental customers. In contrast, it’s wholly consistent with the practice I observed in which Aspira claims commission without any expense to find or attract users.

Whatever the benefits to Aspira and its partners, the effect on merchants is clearly negative: Aspira causes extra advertising expense without providing incremental purchases. Affiliate merchants should reject Aspira’s approach, save their marketing budgets for publishers with genuine incremental value, and encourage Aspira to shift to other activities.

Thanks to Thomas Rice for bringing this practice to my attention and facilitating my collection of proof of Aspira’s practices.

Google’s Tying and Bundling

Disclosure: I serve as a consultant to various companies that compete with Google. That work is ongoing and covers varied subjects, most commonly advertising fraud. I write on my own—not at the suggestion or request of any client, without approval or payment from any client.

Google often argues that “competition is one click away” — as if Google’s many successes result solely from competition on the merits. Let me offer a different perspective: After early success in search and search advertising, Google used its strength in those sectors to increase its likelihood of success elsewhere — even where competitors’ offerings were objectively preferable and even where consumers would have preferred alternatives had that choice been genuinely available.

For example, in September 2013 web sites buzzed with the news that users would be required to create Google+ social networking accounts to comment on YouTube videos. There was no obvious reason why a user should need to join Google’s social network in order to post a brief comment on a video. Indeed, for years users had routinely posted via separate YouTube accounts. Google claimed that improvements would increase the quality of YouTube comment discussions and to prevent spam, but there was no obvious reason why those benefits required using Google+. That said, critics quickly saw the strategic implication: Google+ was years late to the market; other social networking services were far better established and already enjoyed much more success. But Google could use its other powerful properties, YouTube among others, to increase the pressure for users to join Google+.

Nor was Google+ unusual in benefiting from Google’s other products. In the context of mobile phones and tablets, Google had established a series of restrictions requiring that if a manufacturer sought to install any Google service–such as Maps, YouTube, or the Google Play store for installing other apps from Google and others–the manufacturer must accept a variety of obligations. For example, the manufacturer must install all the Google apps that Google specified–even if the manufacturer preferred another app. Furthermore, Google required that apps icons be placed in the locations that Google specified, including multiple entries on the device’s prominent “home” screen. The device must use Google Location Services, not competitors’ offerings, even if competitors’ offerings were faster, more accurate, or more protective of privacy. And manufacturers must take all these actions for Google’s benefit without any payment from Google. As a result, competing apps had to struggle to reach users–resorting to soliciting user installations one-by-one, rather than faster and more predictable bulk installations by device manufacturers.

Most obviously, Google’s core search service systematically favors Google results. Search for a stock ticker symbol, and you’re encouraged to go to Google Finance. If a video is deemed relevant, it will almost always be from YouTube. And so on. Sometimes these services are just as good for consumers; sometimes, not. But for any user unwilling to spend extra time requesting other services–day in and day out, ad infinitum–Google’s offerings become the easy and obvious defaults in every affected sector. Yelp may be a little better or even a lot better. But when Google puts Google Local front and center, many users will go there instead.

Today I’m posting an article exploring a series of incidents where Google used similar methods–broadly, tying and bundling–to expand its dominance into additional markets. In each market, I present the details of Google’s approach, then assess concerns under antitrust law. Selected examples:

If a ___ wants ___ Then it must accept ___
If a consumer wants to use Google Search Google Finance, Images, Maps, News, Products, Shopping, YouTube, and more
If a mobile carrier wants to preinstall YouTube for Android Google Search, Google Maps (even if a competitor is willing to pay to be default)
If an advertiser wants to advertise on any AdWords Search Network Partner All AdWords Search Network sites (in whatever proportion Google specifies)
If an advertiser wants to advertise on Google Search as viewed on computers   Tablet placements and, with limited restrictions, smartphone placements
If an advertiser wants image ads Google Affiliate Network (historic)
If an advertiser wants a logo in search ads Google Checkout (historic)
If a video producer wants preferred video indexing YouTube hosting
If a web site publisher wants preferred search indexing Google Plus participation

My bottom line: Google’s use of tying portends a future of reduced choice, slower innovation, lower quality, and higher prices. To date, Google has focused its harshest terms on advertisers, but after paying Google some $60+ billion each year, advertisers recoup these expenses through higher prices to consumers. Meanwhile, if a broad class of opportunities are effectively off-limits to competitors because Google either has claimed those sectors or is positioned to be able to claim them whenever it chooses, the incentive to invest is sharply attenuated. These are exactly the practices that competition law seeks to prevent.

My full article:

Leveraging Market Power through Tying and Bundling: Does Google Behave Anti-Competitively?

(update: published as “Does Google Leverage Market Power Through Tying and Bundling?” Journal of Competition Law & Economics 11, no. 2 (June 2015): 365-400.)